inthe00s
The Pop Culture Information Society...

These are the messages that have been posted on inthe00s over the past few years.

Check out the messageboard archive index for a complete list of topic areas.

This archive is periodically refreshed with the latest messages from the current messageboard.




Check for new replies or respond here...

Subject: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: sonikuu on 05/02/06 at 6:07 pm

Does anyone here think mp3 players will ever become obsolete in the next ten or so years?  I'm talking about mp3 players in general, not just the ipod.  It seems kind of hard for mp3 players to go obsolete.  After all, where can you go after downloading songs and having 5000 songs all in one place?  It seems like we really can't do much better than that.  The only thing I can see is improvements on the mp3 player (similar to how HDTV improves tv) and no real revolutionary music device inventions.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: shaneiscrazy on 05/02/06 at 8:30 pm

i think its here to stay maybe not mp3 players but downloading a song to cd is here to stay, i dont think the mp3 market will grow much because most people look at other mp3 players other then ipods as cheaply made and gimmicks even though thats not true

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Johnny_D on 05/02/06 at 8:38 pm

Yes, mp3 technology will eventually go the way of vinyl records.

When?  Depends on too many synergistic factors (science, market forces) to say for certain.

What will replace it?  Probably a crystal-based memory medium that will store music/information at an atomic or near-quantum level, pushing the boundaries of how infinitesimally a bit (i.e. a "1" or a "0") can be physically represented.

And beyond THAT ... we run into ... Clarke's Law.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: GoodRedShirt on 05/02/06 at 8:41 pm


most people look at other mp3 players other then ipods as cheaply made and gimmicks even though thats not true
People are opening their eyes and realising there are better options than an ipod. Ipods are overpriced and not all that great compared to what else is on the market. Granted there is alot of crap out there, it's best to ask an expert or check out various ones if you are tninking of buying one.

And MP3 players are here to stay. Soon to overtake CD players as the main source of portable music (if it hasn't done so already). I. however, am still waiting for the price to lower before I consider grabbing one.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Johnny_D on 05/02/06 at 8:45 pm



People are opening their eyes and realising there are better options than an ipod. Ipods are overpriced and not all that great compared to what else is on the market.



No argument from me there --- iPods use old-fashioned mechanical hard drives.  The state of the art today is "flash memory", which is totally solid state with no moving parts at all --- and it's widely available in many types of mp3 players.  Flash memory still can't compete on a dollar-per-gigabyte basis with the mechanical iPod, but that will change --- soon.   ;)

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Apricot on 05/02/06 at 8:46 pm

I think eventually some crazy new form of music storage will come out.. I mean, it's hard to imagine, but you never know.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: GoodRedShirt on 05/02/06 at 8:48 pm


I think eventually some crazy new form of music storage will come out.. I mean, it's hard to imagine, but you never know.
Possibly. But it's hard to imagine anything better than a tiny gadget which can hold up to 30GB of music.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Johnny_D on 05/02/06 at 8:50 pm


Possibly. But it's hard to imagine anything better than a tiny gadget which can hold up to 30GB of music.


How about an even tinier gadget that can hold 30 PB of music?  No joke.  Wait.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: GoodRedShirt on 05/02/06 at 8:52 pm


How about an even tinier gadget that can hold 30 PB of music?  No joke.  Wait.
Well, yeah...

But MP3 playes are small enough now, and very easy to lose or misplace. (Of accidently stand on it because you can't see it as it's so small  :o)

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Johnny_D on 05/02/06 at 8:56 pm


Well, yeah...

But MP3 playes are small enough now, and very easy to lose or misplace. (Of accidently stand on it because you can't see it as it's so small  :o)


Cheap, disposable mp3 players holding petabytes of music. 

The players will be as small and thin as a postage stamp. 

You will peel one off a backing, stick it on your skin anywhere, scan it with a laser-scanner attached to your home computer to load your music onto it, and then you'll control it by thought. 

This is advanced (albeit speculative) neurophonic-brainwave interface engineering ... although it might sound like magic, it's perfectly feasible given the ongoing exponential bootstrapping of IT development.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: shadowy_starr on 05/02/06 at 8:57 pm


And MP3 players are here to stay. Soon to overtake CD players as the main source of portable music (if it hasn't done so already).


I agree. I think CDs will become the next vinyl

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Johnny_D on 05/02/06 at 8:58 pm



I agree. I think CDs will become the next vinyl



And sooner than any of us think.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Trimac20 on 05/02/06 at 9:16 pm

No, not for a long time.

Although I think the new trend is not in increasing storage space, but wireless connectivity. We'll no longer have to have super-sized hard-drives to store all those songs, but merely beam them in from wireless network hubs in our homes, public spaces.etc. Does bring about issues about public domain, rights.etc, though. For now, mp3 is still by far the most popular compressed format, and is likely to remain so.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Dominic L. on 05/02/06 at 10:50 pm

Definitely.


There's a compact disc that holds 40 GB's, and it's TINY!

Not for sale, it was just an experiment

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Foo Bar on 05/02/06 at 11:08 pm


Does anyone here think mp3 players will ever become obsolete in the next ten or so years? 

No.  MP3 is a sufficently-open, and sufficiently well-documented format, that anyone with $50-100 to spend on chemicals, software, and blank programmable chips - can build their own MP3 player from scratch.

Yeah, I think it'll get so bad that you'll want to. 

The period of time from now-2010 will probably be the last time you'll be able to purchase non-iTunes (Apple's DRM) and non-MTP (Windows Media Transfer Protocol, basically Windows Media Player's answer to iTunes DRM) devices.

A device that appears to a host computer to be a USB storage device, and that plays MP3s, is a Good Thing.  When you find one you really like, get at least one.  One that takes removable media?  Get at least two.  Use both regularly.  Understand its power source.  When (not if) one breaks over the next 10-20 years, you'll have a spare good for another 10-20.  As long as you have 120-240VAC coming out of the wall, you'll be able to find a wall wart (AC adaptor) capable of producing *something* that approximates your MP3 player's battery.

Hell, as long as you have a supply of lemons (or oranges, apples, or even friggin' potatoes), and a piece of copper and a piece of zinc, you'll be able to power that MP3 player.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Watcher29 on 05/03/06 at 8:54 am

I imagine they will come out with something "better" (read: more controllable by the industry) soon.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Gil on 05/04/06 at 12:41 am

mp3s as standalone devices will become less and less.  If you have a PDA, you can use it to play mp3.  Other divices like phones will start to integrate players more and more.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Trimac20 on 05/04/06 at 2:47 am

Players where the music is physically stored will become obsolete when streaming technology allows us to get music from hubs from online servers, where we store our collections. Unlike current radio stations (even satellite, online), one can basically select songs from this bank of songs - which will be stored on something like a website - which may potentially hold terrabytes of data. Meaning super-high quality music and lots of it!

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: MaxwellSmart on 05/04/06 at 3:36 am

At some point, everybody and everything will become obsolete. You can make book on that!
::)

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Trimac20 on 05/04/06 at 6:42 am


At some point, everybody and everything will become obsolete. You can make book on that!
::)


Except death and taxes... :D

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: bbigd04 on 05/04/06 at 3:44 pm

Yes one day they'll have something else that's better, technology always changes.

Subject: Re: Will mp3 players ever become obsolete?

Written By: Foo Bar on 05/06/06 at 12:03 am


Players where the music is physically stored will become obsolete when streaming technology allows us to get music from hubs from online servers, where we store our collections. Unlike current radio stations (even satellite, online), one can basically select songs from this bank of songs - which will be stored on something like a website - which may potentially hold terrabytes of data. Meaning super-high quality music and lots of it!

And who'll sell you those devices?

Streaming music providers - who'll be sued into oblivion by RIAA if they don't cripple the music with DRM?

Wireless communications providers - like the phone companies that cripple the firmware on a perfectly-functional Motorola phone - so they can charge $1.00 per 30-second ringtone, and send $0.01 back to RIAA in royalties?

Your ISP?  In the fact of AT&T's opposition to network neutrality - whose lobbyists are *today* branding Vint Cerf (arguably the inventor of TCP/IP protocol) and Tim Berners-Lee (definitively the inventor of the WWW) as "luddites" in front of Congressmen too stupid to know the truth?

With all due respect (because this is _not_ a flame at you) - yeah, streaming technology's ready. But the only way you'll have anything worth streaming at any rate less than a dollar a minute is through either intellectual property infringment (downloading DRM-free MP3 encodings of music you haven't purchased), or through open source hardware hacking (you can purchase a CD-DA compliant disc, you can rip your own MP3s, but you can't play 'em back if your device doesn't have MP3 decoding capabilities -- and you can't *use* an MP3 codec free of license fees to the Germans who invented the format without building your own gadget for noncommercial purposes.  Otherwise, you're infringing on the intellectual property of the Fraunhoefer Institute just as badly as if you'd "pirated" a CD against the wishes of RIAA.) 

I've as-anonymously-as-is-possible sent some money to the Fraunhoefer Institute.  They invented MP3, and they did so without Digital Restrictions Management (DRM).  They've made my life as a music fan a hell of a lot better, and have earned every penny (and probably a heck of a lot more) I've sent 'em.  I've sent 'em more money than their license agreement would have required.  And even though what I've given 'em is a drop in the bucket compared to their gudget, I still feel like I've sent 'em less than what they've deserved.  My library is something I'd spend _tens of thousands_ to protect.

On the other side of the coin - namely RIAA's intellectual property rights?  I buy CDs and vinyl (used or new) when I can, but in terms of value-add over the past decade, I wouldn't urinate in RIAA's mouth if its' collective stomach were on fire.

Check for new replies or respond here...