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Subject: Lifespans/Permutations of Current Technologies

Written By: Trimac20 on 05/09/06 at 11:26 am

My prediction for the lifespans/permutations of current technologies;

MP3 format: Will remain for a long time due to compatibility, although its phasing out will begin in 2010, and will not be complete for a decade more.
Ipod: Of course, Apple will keep pushing and update the Ipod branding for along time to come. The Ipod will die when HD MP3 players cease to be important, and the ipod brand label/image ceases to be associated with the product. I'm guessing 2009-2010 is also when the last ipod will be manufactured.
Internet: Will continue indefinitely, but become even more interactive, with T3 in every home by 2008.
TV: TV's will remain until about 2017-2020 when true holographic technology allows '3D Telespheres' in every home theatre, with 'true-sound.'
Personal computers: Will become even more 'integrated' into home theatre/media centre, with media centres outnumbering conventional PC's by late 2007. LCD's now about 90% shire of monitors.
Mobile phones: Truly integrated devices - i.e. with proper onboard hard-drives/OS, now a niche thing, will become mainstream by 2008.
Digital cameras: Proper digi-cams will become integrated with mobiles in Feb 2008.
Cars: 'Self-drive' will never really catch on, and continue to be a very niche thing. GPS, however, will catch on and be installed in about 50% of new cars by 2010.
Ethanol/bio-fuels: Unlikely to be utilised properly until 2020 due to economic/political reasons.
Cooking/Cleaning.etc: Apart from Robot vacuums, and smart integrated households, appliance technology will remain pretty constant until a great leap in the mid 2010s, with proper robot fridges.etc, though due to laws these will be carefully restricted.
Robot pets etc will be a fad (much more advanced than current) in 2007, before losing popularity by 2010.



Subject: Re: Lifespans/Permutations of Current Technologies

Written By: Trimac20 on 05/09/06 at 11:30 am

I'll also add;

PSP: Not quite a success as SONY predicted in terms of influence of popular culture. Perhaps a PSP v2.0 will be released about 2008 or so, but the concept will be killed by integrated peripherals.
CD-based stereo systems: Will decline sharply by the end of the decade, when streamed receivers from Media Centres will replace them.
CDs: I predict the real 'death of the compact disc' at 2011-2012, with the death of the 3" laser-read disc format in about 2018-2019.
DVDs: Blu-ray discs will make a mark in 2008, but removable media will receive a blow from streamed media in the next decade.

Subject: Re: Lifespans/Permutations of Current Technologies

Written By: sonikuu on 05/09/06 at 7:53 pm

Sorry, but I highly doubt a lot of this will happen.  How is T3 going to be in every home by 2008 when only 70% have broadband in 2006?  I also doubt the technology for these '3D Telespheres' will ever come into fruition and if it does, it certainly won't be mainstream in 2017-2020.  You have any idea how much that would cost?  It wouldn't be mainstream for years, similar to how they debuted HDTV in the 90's, yet it never caught on.  Then again, I highly doubt holographs will catch on with Americans.  It reminds me too much of the 3D movie fad of the 50's, which was amazing at first until you realized it was extremely gimmicky.

Subject: Re: Lifespans/Permutations of Current Technologies

Written By: Johnny_D on 05/09/06 at 8:16 pm

Sometime before December 31, 2012, intelligent extraterrestrial life forms will make themselves known publicly on Earth, initiating a revolution in human civilization ... especially in technology.  Not a joke.  Worldwide social upheaval, with unpredictable consequences, will also occur.  Let's hope humanity is mature enough to deal with it in a healthy way.

Subject: Re: Lifespans/Permutations of Current Technologies

Written By: Trimac20 on 05/09/06 at 9:37 pm


Sorry, but I highly doubt a lot of this will happen.  How is T3 going to be in every home by 2008 when only 70% have broadband in 2006?  I also doubt the technology for these '3D Telespheres' will ever come into fruition and if it does, it certainly won't be mainstream in 2017-2020.  You have any idea how much that would cost?  It wouldn't be mainstream for years, similar to how they debuted HDTV in the 90's, yet it never caught on.  Then again, I highly doubt holographs will catch on with Americans.  It reminds me too much of the 3D movie fad of the 50's, which was amazing at first until you realized it was extremely gimmicky.


Come to think now, I think Virtual Reality rather than holographic technology will with the entertainment medium of the future. As sci-fi as it seems, with fifty years VR will progress to be some approximation of real life, ala 'The Matrix.' Technology is developing at a frightening rate, like it or not.

Subject: Re: Lifespans/Permutations of Current Technologies

Written By: Trimac20 on 05/09/06 at 9:39 pm

Another interesting development is in Personal transportation. I predict with the fuel shortage of late, we'll see throngs of people in scooters and segways, smaller cars/more hybrid/electric/solar cars, as well as the beginning of PTU (Personal Transportation Units) in the form of tiny choppers cruising the air-waves. I predict traditional gasoline-running engines will be outnumbered (not accounting for current vehicles) by 2050-2060.

Subject: Re: Lifespans/Permutations of Current Technologies

Written By: sonikuu on 05/10/06 at 2:10 am


Come to think now, I think Virtual Reality rather than holographic technology will with the entertainment medium of the future. As sci-fi as it seems, with fifty years VR will progress to be some approximation of real life, ala 'The Matrix.' Technology is developing at a frightening rate, like it or not.


Virtual Reality seems a lot more likely to become mainstream than holographs.  With holographs, it's basically the same thing as normal tv, just with holographs.  The reason why I compared it to 3D movies was because 3D movies became huge in the 1950's and everyone admired it...until they realized the movies were more concerned with using 3D graphics (reaching out stuff deliberately toward the screen, etc.) than making good movies.  Holographs would probably be just as gimmicky.

Virtual Reality I could definitely see though in 50 years.  I see it mainly as being a video game only thing at first.  Video game companies already tried experimenting with virtual reality in the 1990s.  It didn't work out at all, but at least we know they're interested in it.  They'll probably do virtual reality first, sometime in the future.  By that point, video games won't have the stigma they do now, considering how many still view it as child's play despite the average gamer age being 27 and 80 million PS2s having been sold.  As a result, once video game companies start using it for their video games, it'll be only a matter of time before it spreads to other things.  Perhaps the internet will become like it is in that show Futurama, where it is completely virtual reality, with chat rooms being actual rooms, etc.

Heck, Nintendo's new console coming out later this year is using an interactive remote that will perform various actions.  Want to swing a sword?  Don't press a button, just flick the controller in the direction you want to swing (or actually swing it, but your arm will get tired easily).  Want to use a gun?  Don't press a control stick, just move the remote to the area of the screen you want to shoot and press a button.  It's not much, but it's the first step.

Subject: Re: Lifespans/Permutations of Current Technologies

Written By: Trimac20 on 05/10/06 at 2:40 am

Yeah VR is possibly the most exciting of all the up and coming technology, because it opens the door to endless possibilities. All your senses, not merely vision and sound, can be immersed, and you can have experiences you could not possibly have/would not want to have in real life. Like going into a steamy Bangkok massage parlour, or experiencing a virtual 'death.' You could project your holographic image into the virtual chatrooms, and it'll be as if you're really there, talking to those other people. Who knows, one day even inthe00s.com might evolve into something like that.

Subject: Re: Lifespans/Permutations of Current Technologies

Written By: Trimac20 on 05/12/06 at 9:57 pm

Yes, we are living in exciting times indeed.

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