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Subject: Netflix boss says DVD has two years left
Written By: yelimsexa on 10/22/09 at 2:05 pm
http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/null/152659
The days of building your precious DVD collection may be coming to an end sooner than you think. If Netflix CEO Reed Hastings' comments are any guide, the DVD era may be set to come to a rather abrupt halt.
Specifically, Hastings said in an interview with The Motley Fool website (digested here) that DVD will only be the "primary delivery format" at the company for the next two years, though he did add that it would stick around in some fashion for the next decade or two. That's a huge pull back from Hastings' previous prognostication; the Netflix boss had formerly predicted DVD would remain the company's primary format until as late as 2018.
Strangely, Hastings didn't note what would supplant DVD as the company's major movie format, but considering that Blu-ray remains a niche product, with 10 percent penetration or lower among most consumers, he's probably talking about streaming.
Netflix has embraced video streaming in a major way in recent years, and its $99 set-top box remains the method I use to watch more streaming content than any other, outside of the occasional YouTube clip, anyway. (And yes, I know the Xbox-Netflix combo is undoubtedly popular with a huge number of people, too, at least those who don't futilely shun and fear video game consoles.)
Netflix continues to expand its streaming options -- about 20 percent of my queue is now available for streaming, up from roughly 8 percent a year ago -- but Hollywood keeps resisting, much as Big Media did in the early days of digital music downloads. Is Netflix hinting that more studios are climbing aboard the digital bandwagon? And at what point does streaming hit enough of a critical mass to become the dominant movie delivery method? 50 percent of titles available to stream? 80 percent? It's hard to see those kinds of numbers panning out in a mere two years... but maybe Hastings has tricks up his sleeve that we're only just now starting to hear about.
My thoughts:
Really, Youtube's technology is improving with higher quality videos than even just a year ago (has anybody noticed?). As online streaming continues to grow, this development (with Blu-Ray struggling to survive over the next five years). What happened with Music is happening with Film and Television: alternatives and file sharers will win the war over the legal organizations). This will likely spell trouble with mainstream films (just like what's happened to music); the 3D movies fad is basically just a renewal of the 1950s trend. There will likely be fewer TRUE entertainment celebrities over the next decade (This decade's music stars are a good example).
I'm starting to REALLY miss the time before the Internet now, I'd say Internet is now at it's full adulthood stage. I'd consider 1969-1988 the "embroynic" stage, 1989-1996 was the "childhood" stage, 1997-2006 was the "adolosecent" stage, and definately 2007+ is "full adulthood"- the Internet basically takes virtually full control now of what culture brings, as non-web entertainment is really an endangered species nowadays.
Subject: Re: Netflix boss says DVD has two years left
Written By: whistledog on 10/22/09 at 2:28 pm
I'm starting to REALLY miss the time before the Internet now, I'd say Internet is now at it's full adulthood stage. I'd consider 1969-1988 the "embroynic" stage, 1989-1996 was the "childhood" stage, 1997-2006 was the "adolosecent" stage, and definately 2007+ is "full adulthood"- the Internet basically takes virtually full control now of what culture brings, as non-web entertainment is really an endangered species nowadays.
I am a 2x college grad, and I have no idea what you just said.
Subject: Re: Netflix boss says DVD has two years left
Written By: Mushroom on 10/23/09 at 12:46 pm
The days of building your precious DVD collection may be coming to an end sooner than you think. If Netflix CEO Reed Hastings' comments are any guide, the DVD era may be set to come to a rather abrupt halt.
I really doubt that will happen any time soon. And i bet it is still closer to the 2018 date.
Even though the DVD was introduced in 1996, it took almost 10 years to fully saturate the market. And there are a lot of people that still use VHS. Sure it's availability for new movies is pretty much gone, but it is still the prefered media for home recording. And most people with VHS movies are not running out and replacing their collections with DVDs.
One thing this kind of report forgets is the large number of "Ludites" out there. My father is a good example. I brought home a BetaMax recorder in 1984, and he had no idea what he would use it for. I think it was finally 1992 when he bought his first VHS machine, and even though he has a DVD player, he will not hook it up. Everything he says he needs is on videotape.
And even though they seem to be "the standard", it was not that long ago that buying a DVD player was a decision between several formats. And only 3 years ago, buying a DVD recorder was both expensive ($300+), the media was outrageously priced (often $20 a disk).
And today, the average BluRay recorder is in the $300 range, with the media selling for $15 a disk. Granted, that may change soon. But how many people need 25gb disks? And it is going to be several years before BluRay becomes standard on new computers.
I'm starting to REALLY miss the time before the Internet now, I'd say Internet is now at it's full adulthood stage. I'd consider 1969-1988 the "embroynic" stage, 1989-1996 was the "childhood" stage, 1997-2006 was the "adolosecent" stage, and definately 2007+ is "full adulthood"- the Internet basically takes virtually full control now of what culture brings, as non-web entertainment is really an endangered species nowadays.
Well, you really can't compare the Internet of 1969-1993 with the Internet of 1993-Today. About the only holdouts left of the original Internet is the e-mail system, and TCP-IP. IRC is fading fast, and UseNet is effectively dead. And I can't remember the last time I used Gopher, let alone Archie, Veronica, and Jughead.
The early Internet was little more then a WAN, about like what you had with Netware, Banyan Vines, or NT Server. The current incarnation really started with the introduction of the WWW (which is all that most people think the Internet is).
And I would not consider us being anywhere near "Adulthood" yet. But if IP6 is ever fully implemented, then I will consider that we might have finally arrived at that. I would classify it as barely "Post-puberty" at this time.
Subject: Re: Netflix boss says DVD has two years left
Written By: JamieMcBain on 10/23/09 at 2:54 pm
For me, it will be when the price of HDTVs go down, even lower.
Subject: Re: Netflix boss says DVD has two years left
Written By: robby76 on 10/23/09 at 11:49 pm
Netflix merely said that they would probably do away with the dvd rental part of their business (and focus on streaming). That does not mean dvd companies will stop producing dvds. I think these techies read far too much into that statement. People still like the tangibility of dvds.