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Subject: Expect a Kerry bounce my conservative friends.

Written By: GWBush2004 on 07/05/04 at 5:41 pm

As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August. 

An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers.  In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention. 

As the below chart illustrates:

1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat. 
2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August.

Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention.  On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee.  We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up



--Remember even Mondale got this same 15 point bounce and he lost by the largest margin in U.S. history.  I'm just warning you because the democrats will be going insane, but don't worry our convention isn't far behind.

Subject: Re: Expect a Kerry bounce my conservative friends.

Written By: Don Carlos on 07/05/04 at 5:53 pm


As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August. 

An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers.  In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention. 

As the below chart illustrates:

1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat. 
2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August.

Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention.  On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee.  We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up



--Remember even Mondale got this same 15 point bounce and he lost by the largest margin in U.S. history.  I'm just warning you because the democrats will be going insane, but don't worry our convention isn't far behind.


Nice pep talk GWB.  But the only poll that counts comes in November, unless Your man has another Katherine Harris in the wings, in which case we might just appoint the lying little snivil king George and have done with it.

I notice, by the way, that none of the conservative members of the Supreme Court have stepped down.  Could it be that THEY are having reservations?  Or are they expecting another "Florida surprise"?

Subject: Re: Expect a Kerry bounce my conservative friends.

Written By: GWBush2004 on 07/05/04 at 6:10 pm




Nice pep talk GWB.  But the only poll that counts comes in November


That I agree with.

Subject: Re: Expect a Kerry bounce my conservative friends.

Written By: danootaandme on 07/05/04 at 6:16 pm

How about this, the 58,000 legally registered, mainly african american voters who were illegally dropped from the voter rolls by katherine harris, as requested by her boss, the governor of Florida jeb bush(no capitals on purpose), at the request of the governor of Texas, george bush,(and we all know that they idea had to have come from poppy) get to vote twice this time.

Subject: Re: Expect a Kerry bounce my conservative friends.

Written By: Hairspray on 07/06/04 at 12:52 pm


get to vote twice this time.


Wow, really? I wonder who they'll vote for. ;D

Subject: Re: Expect a Kerry bounce my conservative friends.

Written By: Don Carlos on 07/06/04 at 3:53 pm





That I agree with.


How could you not, but you haven't explained why at least 2 of the conservatives on the court, who have suggested that they want to retire, are remaining.  I also not that Bush has lost a couple of cases before the court, like their affirmation of the right of "detainees" to access to the courts.  Not to be rude, but are you avoiding these issues?

Subject: Re: Expect a Kerry bounce my conservative friends.

Written By: My name is Kenny on 07/07/04 at 3:13 am

So, are you trying to imply that the Supreme Court will hand Bush the election or that they're fighting Bush?

Subject: Re: Expect a Kerry bounce my conservative friends.

Written By: Don Carlos on 07/07/04 at 3:54 pm


So, are you trying to imply that the Supreme Court will hand Bush the election or that they're fighting Bush?


Well, Kenny, I just don't know how to interpret what is going on.  It could be that with all of the revelations about Florida 2000 (which Gore clearly would have WON) the justices are having second thoughts and don't want little Georgie to stack the court.  I'm sure none would admit to that while still sitting, but I do look forward to their books.  While it is very true that they all are +/- ideologically motivated, they are probably the least corrupt bunch of the three branches, and the Bush family corruption may be just too blatant for them to stomach or sanction.  November should be very interesting.

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