Congratulations, Kim-Jong-Il, on joining the game. You might want to watch a few rounds before playing for real.  I hear Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are thinking about logging on.  (Shoot, Japan could probably join next Tuesday if they wanted :)

I don't have a need to know (shoot, I have so little a need to know that I don't even know if I need a need to know!) how to differentiate the seismic signature of a natural event versus a not-so-natural event, but... it sure looks like something interesting happened there within a few minutes of your claimed test time.

But 400kT?  I know that I don't have a need to know to call that claim pure grade-D bullshiat.  You still got some nice toys, though.  They're purty and shiny and make nice *boom* noises in the 5-30kT range.  So - congrats, ya whackjob.  But remember, the only winning move is not to play.

Edit:  The two reports I saw were ~3.5 (first report) and ~4.2 (second report) magnitude seismic events.  These reports were of the same event, which was revised from magnitude 3.5 to 4.2.  This sort of things happens all the time in earthquake reporting; typically the first reports are guesstimates from sensors, and are later revised as data from other seismic monitoring stations comes in. Given that USGS probably doesn't have too many sensors in NK, it's reasonable to assume that the first reports aren't going to be quite as accurate as they might be on, say, the US Pacific coast. 

Assuming the seismic events correspond to the test, 3.5 indicates a sub-kiloton fizzle,  and 4.2 indicates a yield in the 5-30kT range.  Remains to be seen which was the case, but I lean towards believing the implications of the 4.2.  I stand by my "400 kT, my ass!" wisecrack, though. If Kim was testing a boosted device, he failed.  But he's still got some purty cool toys :)

Meh. KJI is on the CIA payroll.  I saw him at the Illuminati square dance dosey-doe-ing with Laura Bush.
::)

Atomic tin-horn dictators are healthy for the Pentagon budget and other growing things....

Meh. KJI is on the CIA payroll.  I saw him at the Illuminati square dance dosey-doe-ing with Laura Bush.
::)


Karl Rove, you magnificent bastard!  The last time we asked someone to blow Foley off the front page, we got something completely different! :)

So this guy really does have, "weapons of mass destruction"...

why aren't we invading them?

^cuz he's actually got a miiltary and could mount a signifcant counterattack he's got thousands of batteries of artillery aimed at south korea and he'd blow the shinola out of them.

make no mistake, these guys in the government are always talking about how tough they are but they only go to war with puny, weak countries with virtually no military.

When I first saw this thread, I thought you were talking about MamaK.  ;D ;D ;D





Cat

Now we're really screwed.

So this guy really does have, "weapons of mass destruction"...

why aren't we invading them?


Who would we send?  We don't have enough soldiers for the stupid @ss war we're already in!

When I first saw this thread, I thought you were talking about MamaK.  ;D ;D ;D





Cat
i thought he was talking about kim richards.

So this guy really does have, "weapons of mass destruction"...

why aren't we invading them?

We cannot invade another country unless we institute a general draft, rescind all tax cuts, and raise taxes beyond what they were before Bush stole the 2000 election.  We did not win WWII by giving tax cuts to the rich and telling everybody to just go shopping.  We will have to do the aforementioned if we want to even stand a chance of achieving our goals in Iraq.


Now we're really screwed.

America is screwed from within, not from without.

Who would we send?  We don't have enough soldiers for the stupid @ss war we're already in!




I figure if my Brother Pete was up for it, we could take 'em. We used to fight the whole of whatever grade we were in.. those Korean dudes are small and malnourished. Gimme a plane, I'm not worried about collateral damage, the NY Post already prints rude articles about me as it is.

I figure if my Brother Pete was up for it, we could take 'em. We used to fight the whole of whatever grade we were in.. those Korean dudes are small and malnourished. Gimme a plane, I'm not worried about collateral damage, the NY Post already prints rude articles about me as it is.


Well they do have those knives on their rifles though.  They're a scary looking army, always with mean looks on their faces.  It makes me wonder if they walk around all day with those mean looks, or just for photo ops.

  looks like North Korea has officially alienated the entire world ~ including their rare friends like China.  With Japan the most outward-facing and militaristic as it has been in years and a South Korean in line to take the head of the United Nations, things aren't looking good for them...

  Are we seeing some sort of alliance with Iran, here..? :-\\

  groove ;) on...

Why must all this caca go down under Bush? I'm practicing my duck and cover right as we speak.

Why must all this caca go down under Bush? I'm practicing my duck and cover right as we speak.

It's all Clinton's fault!
::)


I figure if my Brother Pete was up for it, we could take 'em. We used to fight the whole of whatever grade we were in.. those Korean dudes are small and malnourished. Gimme a plane, I'm not worried about collateral damage, the NY Post already prints rude articles about me as it is.

We could always bomb the living daylights out of 'em, but don't understimate the NK soldiery.  They may be short and scrawny and all, but there's a lot of 'em.  If you join the army, you get fed. They also think Kim Jong Il is God.  If he tells them to fight to the death, they will.  You may think you have the little f**ker right where you want him, but he'll bite through your juguar vein with his bare teeth!
http://www.inthe00s.com/smile/13/laughing4.gif

When I first saw this thread, I thought you were talking about MamaK.  ;D ;D ;D





Cat
Me too.....I was wondering what club I'd joined and forgotten about ??? ;D

  looks like North Korea has officially alienated the entire world ~ including their rare friends like China.  With Japan the most outward-facing and militaristic as it has been in years and a South Korean in line to take the head of the United Nations, things aren't looking good for them...

  Are we seeing some sort of alliance with Iran, here..? :-\\


Let's assume for the moment that the NK test was indeed a success, which is still up in the air at this point.  Even if it was subcritical, it could have been deliberately so in order for their weaponeers to learn more about how well their design works.

With that assumption in mind, here are two questions:

The billion-dollar question:  Given that Iran's president Ahmawhackjob has plenty of cash from oil, and plenty of North Korean technical advisors helping him with his missile programme, how likely is it that Ahmawhackjob and Kim "So Ronery" Jong Be Illin' would be able to agree on a price for a couple of pits?

The trillion-dollar question:  Whether the nukes remian in NK hands or whether they spread to Iran, at what point do you acknowledge the military reality that Seoul will be pummeled into dust by NK's conventional artillery within the first hour or two of revived hostilities between NK and SK... and invade anyway?  (And a few days/weeks/months/years later, a container ship slips into port... and *boom*)

Will the US trade LA/SF/Seattle for Seoul by launching a pre-emptive strike?  No.  Maybe after a US Pacific port is already a smoldering ruin, sure, but not before.  Not pre-emptively.

But would the Chinese be as unwilling to make the same trade?  Maybe not.  And I'll lay good odds that NK's northern border is more poorly defended than its southern border.

A story from the day before the test caught my eye.  Assuming the source of this story is ultimately Chinese, it makes one wonder why, the day before the test, the Chinese would release a story like this.

"Such stories are circulating widely among Chinese on the border, where wild rumours of an American attack on nuclear test sites have spread fears of a Chernobyl-type cloud of radiation and sparked indignation at the North Koreans.

When I first saw this thread, I thought you were talking about MamaK.  ;D ;D ;D


Cat


as did i !! lol! ;D


i thought he was talking about kim richards.



why is this so far from surprising  :P

I wonder..how WOULD things turn out if China decided to invade North Korea?

why is this so far from surprising  :P
KIM RICHARDS!

if she wants to devastate the universe with nuclear weapons, i'm 100 percent okay with that. because what she says, goes.

I wonder..how WOULD things turn out if China decided to invade North Korea?
Like that's gonna happen. I think it's a safe bet that they're all in cahoots.

Like that's gonna happen. I think it's a safe bet that they're all in cahoots.


I'm only half playing Devil's Advocate here.  Who's "they"?  China's in it for China's interests?  Would China do better with, or without, the existence of one of the US's major seaports?  China would certainly be able to export about the same amount of crap to us, through Wal-Mart, the only question would be how much higher the price would be due to decreased supplly (we're short one port due to the nuke) and constant demand (we still want our cheap Chinese crap, at whatever price they'll charge us).

The loss of a US port city would be a net wash (but a short-term, maybe 1-2 quarter loss) for Wal-Mart, and perhaps a medium-term good for Chinese manufacturers.  The really interesting question would be which US (or other international) companies would step in to fill the void caused by the loss of Seoul and the neighboring cities as an electrnonics manufacturing center.

I think there's only one rational explanation for all of this: Kim Jong Il is clearly an alcoholic.

It all depends on what Bush does over the next two years. If he doesn't go back to the diplomatic table with NK, one-on-one, I think the PRC will be in an akward position where there is serious potential for third party(in this case the U.S.) military action right next door, which could also result in a really bad refugee crises for them to deal with. China probably wouldn't consider pulling a U.S. in Iraq and completely depose NK's current government and occupy them,but I could see them taking out KJL and maybe a few others at the top of the regime and making room for new leaders to move up and take a new course in foreign policy for N.K. that would be more beneficial to Chinese security and economic interests.

I think there's only one rational explanation for all of this: Kim Jong Il is clearly an alcoholic.


Well, then he and Dubya should go to AA meetings together.  Seriously.  Dubya is drunk.  They say he's quit drinking, but I'm so sure.  He may have wet brain and he be a dry drunk.  Just because you've stopped drinking does not mean you have mended your ways!

Well, then he and Dubya should go to AA meetings together.  Seriously.  Dubya is drunk.  They say he's quit drinking, but I'm so sure.  He may have wet brain and he be a dry drunk.  Just because you've stopped drinking does not mean you have mended your ways!


I was actually taking a jab a Foley, but now that you mention it, Bush being drunk is entirely plausible.  At least it would explain some of his sound bites...

I was actually taking a jab a Foley, but now that you mention it, Bush being drunk is entirely plausible.  At least it would explain some of his sound bites...

dain bramage

dain bramage


nucular
misunderestimated

I'm only half playing Devil's Advocate here.  Who's "they"?  China's in it for China's interests?  Would China do better with, or without, the existence of one of the US's major seaports?  China would certainly be able to export about the same amount of crap to us, through Wal-Mart, the only question would be how much higher the price would be due to decreased supplly (we're short one port due to the nuke) and constant demand (we still want our cheap Chinese crap, at whatever price they'll charge us).


/slaps self with trout

Had a neat chat with a buddy at work.  After many beers, the upshot was that we might not want to trade Seoul for Los Angeles... but that the Chinese would be delighted to see an Eastern, not Western, seabord port, incinerated in nuclear fire in exchange for the elimination of South Korea's productive assets.  China would invade, ostensibly on our behalf, driving the NK refugees south, and (since Seoul and Inchon would probably be lost in the first few hours) eliminating South Korea as a center of production, driving Chinese exports up... and even if Chinese exports didn't go up, they'd still increase in value owing to the loss of a US port on the Eastern seaboard.

Wouldn't bet the farm on this scenario - the most likely outcome is that "nothing happens" beyond the usual saber-rattling - but it's something to keep in mind for 1-2% of your portfolios. Cheap insurance.

Old bets got settled, and new bets got made.  I'm currently offering 2:1 odds that NK does a test this weekend, 1:2 odds that they do one within two weeks.  As to whether it works or not, my drinkin' and tradin' buddy have agreed to hold off on settling our last-week post-test bet on whether or not NK's test was successful or not.  The sub-kiloton yield will be deemed to be "success, they meant to fizzle in order to learn about their physics package" if NK manages to produce >100kt yield on their next test.  The sub-kiloton yield will be deemed to be "failure, they farked up the first time around" if NK produces >10kt and <50kt on their next test.  Any number in between, we call it even money. 

We didn't make bets on the yield of their second test, but I'm gonna go 4:1 on >100kt.  I could be wrong.  The scariest part of this is that I would have give 10:1 odds on their first test.  I really ain't convicinced they didn't mean to fizzle last week.  If all they have is a Fat Man type device, I won't be sucking neutrons unless they get it within 10 miles of my house.  Probably just enjoy the light show and click the "buy" button that connects to my broker until my Intarweb connection blanks out.  If they can purify enough of the ... umm.. right kind of alcoholism treatment, and have sufficient quantities of appropiately-massive water, well, I'm boned.  Was nice postin' to y'all.  The rest of the engineering is  mercifully, beyond my brain's ability to compute.  It's not very secret to people with the right mathematical or metallurgical backgrounds, but it's thankfully very difficult in executions, and the more of his stockpile  Kim burns up on his tests, the better I feel.

"The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age."

- H. P. Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu, 1926

RIP, Teller.  Wish I coulda bought you a beer while you were still alive.  Did the next best thing I could have, donated a few bucks to the charity of your choice.