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Subject: The Euro... These Guys Playing with Fire

Written By: LyricBoy on 12/03/11 at 7:16 pm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8932976/Can-France-and-Germany-keep-the-euro-alive.html

What these guys are proposing is horrendous... usurping the budgetary sovreignity of nations.

Mind you I have little sympathy for the Euro members who have poorly managed their finances that got this whole mess going, but the proposed 'solution' has the potential to ignite political movements that could devastate the continent.  Bad, bad idea...

Subject: Re: The Euro... These Guys Playing with Fire

Written By: Foo Bar on 12/03/11 at 10:34 pm


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8932976/Can-France-and-Germany-keep-the-euro-alive.html

What these guys are proposing is horrendous... usurping the budgetary sovreignity of nations.


What they're proposing has been required since the Euro was founded.

The whole point of the European Monetary Union was to lead the way for a European Fiscal (political) Union.  Everyone drops their national currencies for the Euro, opens their borders, and trades freely in Euros.  In exchange for those benefits, everyone has to keep their deficits to within 3% of GDP, debt-to-GDP ratios of 60%, inflation within 1.5% of the top three, etc.  That's the deal.  Everyone signed off on it in 1992.

The budgetary sovereignty of the States of Kalifornistan and North Dakota were likewise limited by decisions made in Washington DC.  If the States of America are to have a viable monetary union, they are bound by a fiscal union.  We settled that in the 1800s, the hard way.  Wanna trade in dollars?  Freely work and trade across state lines?  Suck it up and make your citizens fork over the fruit of their labor to the farktards in Washington.  As retarded as the drooling imbeciles in DC are, the economies of scale opened up by the monetary, fiscal, and political union that constitutes United States still haven't reached the breaking point where secession is a viable option for any of the 50 states that are part of that Union.

The only thing responsible for this week's almost-1000-point rally in the Dow is because we were bailing them out, and the only reason that rally stalled on Friday was because guess who showed up (they probably bought options on triple inverse funds, just like they did in 2008 and on the debt ceiling crisis this summer) and threatened to stymie Bernanke's plan to save the world again.

The Europeans have yet to figure this out.  But they will.  As long as I'm net long, I hope they figure it out the easy way, but Angela is making it very difficult.  Her political position is precarious.  Because her re-election depends on being able to tell Germans that she didn't bail out the Greeks and the Italians, she can't do what's really needed: Eurobonds and/or monetization.  The catch-22 is that if Italy goes down and takes the Euro with it, it won't matter whether Germany bailed out Italy or not - everyone burns.  (And I hope I'm short :)

tl;dr: If you want monetary union, you've gotta have fiscal union, and if you want fiscal union, you've (eventually) gotta have political union.  We learned it the hard way.  Jury's out on whether the Eurotards figure it out in time.

Subject: Re: The Euro... These Guys Playing with Fire

Written By: LyricBoy on 12/04/11 at 2:21 pm

True, true, this was always the Euro game plan.  But now these guys mean it.

There's a whole lot of difference between what happened in the USA during the 1800's and what's cooking in Europe today.

First off, the original 13 states had joined together as one nation when we gave the King his exit papers,and the other territories that ultimately signed up to become states knew they were gonna be subordinate to some degree to a Federal government.  Yeah the Southern States at one point decided to secede... As I recall more American lives were lost in that war than in WW1 or WW2.

Europe is different... your average Joe Lunchbox in Europe did not sign up for his particular country forgoing its sovreignity, or at least did not realize that is where things would head.  The French (or Germans, etc...) don't want to be subordinate to the Continent's wishes any more than anybody else on the Continent.  The wrong politician with the worst of intentions is gonna take advantage of this situation and the result is going to be ugly.  The question is only where and when.

Subject: Re: The Euro... These Guys Playing with Fire

Written By: Foo Bar on 12/04/11 at 10:31 pm


Europe is different... your average Joe Lunchbox in Europe did not sign up for his particular country forgoing its sovreignity, or at least did not realize that is where things would head.  The French (or Germans, etc...) don't want to be subordinate to the Continent's wishes any more than anybody else on the Continent.  The wrong politician with the worst of intentions is gonna take advantage of this situation and the result is going to be ugly.  The question is only where and when.


You recall correctly when it comes to the casualties during the US Civil War. 

The big problem with EU political union is pretty much what you describe: in the States, despite our regional differences (and the ugly legacy of slavery), we shared one language, and ostensibly one culture.  In Europe, not so much.  Just because you can cross lines on a map in order to get a job, doesn't mean you know the language, and it also doesn't mean you have the same legal protections as citizens of that country.

I don't see it devolving into tyranny or war, but the Euro's still clinging by a thread.

Italy seems to have gotten the message this weekend.  Next weekend - with the summit set for later this week - will be pivotal.

Subject: Re: The Euro... These Guys Playing with Fire

Written By: MaxwellSmart on 12/05/11 at 12:30 am

Are you invested in Euros?

If you're invested in U.S. dollars, I'd worry about those first!
:o

Subject: Re: The Euro... These Guys Playing with Fire

Written By: philbo on 12/05/11 at 4:03 pm


What they're proposing has been required since the Euro was founded.
...

tl;dr: If you want monetary union, you've gotta have fiscal union, and if you want fiscal union, you've (eventually) gotta have political union.  We learned it the hard way.  Jury's out on whether the Eurotards figure it out in time.

^this.

Just the place to pimp today's parody :)

Subject: Re: The Euro... These Guys Playing with Fire

Written By: Foo Bar on 12/06/11 at 1:28 am


Just the place to pimp today's parody :)


Dude, you so need to get in touch with these folks.  Double points if you can find someone to sing it and pipe it through autotune.  Throw some random graphics from here if you feel you must make a video to accompany the audio :)


Are you invested in Euros?


Nope.  But let's just say that if you take a look at a 2-year chart of gold, you'll realize it doesn't matter what the Euro/Dollar/Yen spread is.  The better the Euro does versus the USD, the higher commodities go, especially since they're priced in USD.  It's been a painful second half of the year, and I missed several of these moves (I played silver instead of gold - check out a chart of SLV vs GLD).  My trading's been sloppy, and for the record I'm down for the year.  It's been a wild ride - in my dark moments, I ponder that the only winners have been the robots (who don't care how it plays out) and the politicians (who, as the people attending the meetings, know how the meetings will end before they're even scheduled, and who trade accordingly).

For risk-averse investors, US bonds (check out TLT) were the place to be.  However screwed the US dollar is, we can always print more, which won't be the case for the Europeans for a little while.

Disclaimer: I don't own SLV, GLD, or TLT, nor do I plan on buying any of those ETFs within the next 72 hours.

Subject: Re: The Euro... These Guys Playing with Fire

Written By: philbo on 12/06/11 at 2:56 am


Dude, you so need to get in touch with these folks.  Double points if you can find someone to sing it and pipe it through autotune.  Throw some random graphics from here if you feel you must make a video to accompany the audio :)

Find someone?  I've been practicing playing this (including intro on kazoo).. it'll probably get performed at some open mics over the next month.  Who knows, I might even get round to recording :)

Fun pix - I'd need some more optimistic ones for the first part of the song, though :D

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