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Subject: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: Fearsword on 08/23/15 at 6:27 am

Do,you guys honestly think the economy is about to tank again in 2015, or at least within the next year or so.

I think it might and here's why

Most stocks on Wall Street had their biggest 1 day fall in 4 years. However, this fall was caused by China's rapidly slowing economy and not self-inflicted like 2011 was.


The economy seems to go through 7 year cycles
1987 had Black Monday
1994 Terrible Bond market
2001 Obviously 9/11 had a big impact and probably prolonged the impact of the dot cum bust
2008 Collapse of Lehmann brothers causes global recession that we haven't completely recovered from

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: LyricBoy on 08/23/15 at 7:46 am

Well I don't look to the recent financial market hit for clues.

That said... I am in the trucking business and the economy has DEFINITELY slowed down.  Less stuff is being trucked - thus less stuff is being bought, sold, and produced.

Six months ago we had people beating down our doors looking for truck service.  Now we have to hustle every day to keep the trucks running.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: mqg96 on 08/23/15 at 8:25 am

Unfortunately, yes, it will most likely happen around September of next month, and it's not just the 7 year Shemitah cycles, but you can even feel signs of it that something's about to happen. We've been having all these cases & riots lately with Police officers lately, Gay Marriage was legalized across the United States around the same time there was a Charleston church shooting massacre and the flag controversies, all these forest fires in California which effects the water supply for our country, the Iran Nuclear Deal that our country started setting up back in July and we were given 60 days to do that and guess when that ends, next month in September. All of these events or decisions can happen separately, but the timing of everything happening all at once in one year is what makes it more significant. As long as I've been alive, history has shown that at least since 9/11 happened in September 2001, there's been huge cultural shifts where things in life feel different. After 9/11 it no longer felt like late 90's culture and the 2000's were in full effect, although early 2000's at the time. After the stock market crash of September 2008 things in life felt completely different as it no longer felt like the core 2000's and 2010's culture was coming in real fast. We'll just have to see, but here's a video that explains more about the history or mystery of the 7 year Shemitah cycles, it even goes back as far to the Great Depression and the start/end of WWII.

1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out.
1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam...
1979-1980 Shmita Year - U.S. and global recession.
1986-1987 Shmita Year - 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash.
2000-2001 Shmita Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession.
2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
2014-2015 Shmita Year - ?????

Now to y'all this might have some religious stuff in it, so you might strongly disagree with it, but it's really interesting though at the same time. I highly recommend it but you don't have to watch it.
W8B14NSIWc8


Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Arrowstone on 08/23/15 at 1:20 pm

When I look at the economic signs, there is a slowing down in the global economy, and it is likely that stocks have started to crash. Economic signs are enough to say it is likely that we will see a new crisis before the end of this year. All religious shemita bullsheesh isn't necessary for that.
I don't have an opinion on how bad it will turn out,  but it can be worse than most think.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/23/15 at 2:00 pm

I don't know about fall 2015, but I do feel there will be a crash a la fall 2008 by 2018. Welcome to the new depression kids!  :o

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/23/15 at 2:05 pm

According to one economist, the global financial crisis already started (In 2007/2008).

But the stock market crashes comes in waves he said.

The first wave was 2008. It's hard to forget the 2008 crash I must say.

The second wave is supposed to be this autumn, of 2015, or somewhere in 2016.

The stock market will rise again in 2020 until 2024, when it will crash again. This is the third wave, in 2024.

Then a final stock market crash in 2032 will bring the US dollar to its knees, and hyperinflation will come that year, or earlier. Civil unrest will unfold and hyperinflation will last for 3 years until the world gets a new reserve currency.

After those 3 years, finally a new currency!

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Fearsword on 08/23/15 at 5:03 pm

I'm not entirely certain there will be a major global financial meltdown but I live in Australia and the economy is pretty awful at the moment. Under our heavily despised Prime Minister, Tony Abbott unemployment is steadily increasing and has doubled our overall budget deficit since being elected in September 2013.

Our mining boom is still going on but it's well past its peak  and the Australian dollar is at the lowest I've ever seen it.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Baltimoreian on 08/23/15 at 7:38 pm


According to one economist, the global financial crisis already started (In 2007/2008).

But the stock market crashes comes in waves he said.

The first wave was 2008. It's hard to forget the 2008 crash I must say.

The second wave is supposed to be this autumn, of 2015, or somewhere in 2016.

The stock market will rise again in 2020 until 2024, when it will crash again. This is the third wave, in 2024.

Then a final stock market crash in 2032 will bring the US dollar to its knees, and hyperinflation will come that year, or earlier. Civil unrest will unfold and hyperinflation will last for 3 years until the world gets a new reserve currency.

After those 3 years, finally a new currency!


So, I guess the 2030s would just be worse than this decade, financially? Holy crap, that's terrible. I don't know if that's true or not, but that would just be terrible.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/23/15 at 7:47 pm


So, I guess the 2030s would just be worse than this decade, financially? Holy crap, that's terrible. I don't know if that's true or not, but that would just be terrible.


Be careful who you believe, take the guy with a grain of salt, at least at first. Don't forget, he's an economist, he's trying to make money, LOL.

He admits he could be wrong, so there's that. Plus, doom and gloom equals more clicks and reads!

And actually, according to his model, 2032/2033 is when it finally ends.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Baltimoreian on 08/23/15 at 7:51 pm


Be careful who you believe, take the guy with a grain of salt, at least at first. Don't forget, he's an economist, he's trying to make money, LOL.

He admits he could be wrong, so there's that. Plus, doom and gloom equals more clicks and reads!

And actually, according to his model, 2032/2033 is when it finally ends.


It ends what? The stock market crashes?

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/23/15 at 7:56 pm


It ends what? The stock market crashes?


The recession/depression ends, according to his model. To be more precise, he puts the date at December 24, 2032. It ends in a dramatic and terrible way.

Yes, the stock market may even crash.....again in 2032, and the dollar is no longer the world reserve currency. Unfortunately, this may mean 3 years of hyperinflation, around 2029-2032, or 2032-2035. Like a food costs $4 then next week it costs $280. And after the hyperinflation episode, again, according to him, a new world reserve currency will be put into place for the world.

So the 2030s sound awful.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: ArcticFox on 08/23/15 at 7:56 pm

I do think that there will be a recession, but in the US it will be small. Where I have been working, I get paychecks around the USD$600 range, and I work in a very popular business. Overall, I agree with mqg96 and the Shemitah year cycle. Every seven years. Big coincidences.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/23/15 at 8:01 pm


I do think that there will be a recession, but in the US it will be small. Where I have been working, I get paychecks around the USD$600 range, and I work in a very popular business. Overall, I agree with mqg96 and the Shemitah year cycle. Every seven years. Big coincidences.


I hope that it will be small too.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: ArcticFox on 08/23/15 at 8:16 pm


I hope that it will be small too.


Hearing anecdotes from people from other countries, it seems like the economy is doing far worse overseas than it is here in America. I'm not being overconfident, or at least I'm not trying to be. I feel kinda bad for Europe. It seems like they're always going through some kind of crap, economic or otherwise.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/23/15 at 8:18 pm


Hearing anecdotes from people from other countries, it seems like the economy is doing far worse overseas than it is here in America. I'm not being overconfident, or at least I'm not trying to be. I feel kinda bad for Europe. It seems like they're always going through some kind of crap, economic or otherwise.


I think the 2008/2009 crash really screwed with countries outside the US.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Baltimoreian on 08/23/15 at 9:54 pm


The recession/depression ends, according to his model. To be more precise, he puts the date at December 24, 2032. It ends in a dramatic and terrible way.

Yes, the stock market may even crash.....again in 2032, and the dollar is no longer the world reserve currency. Unfortunately, this may mean 3 years of hyperinflation, around 2029-2032, or 2032-2035. Like a food costs $4 then next week it costs $280. And after the hyperinflation episode, again, according to him, a new world reserve currency will be put into place for the world.

So the 2030s sound awful.


So basically, we would never see the dollar ever again in 2032? This crash is just going to be fudgeed up and even worse than the Great Depression, isn't it?

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/23/15 at 10:09 pm


So basically, we would never see the dollar ever again in 2032? This crash is just going to be fudgeed up and even worse than the Great Depression, isn't it?


The guy that made the model thinks that we're headed for a 2nd American revolution. Think protests, 1960s at least, crazy and wild like the American Revolution or French Revolution, more likely. This is his opinion, not mine.

It's basically a reset of American society and the global economy. Historical, I would say. Think of it as our generation's 1930s and 1940s.

As for the dollar. Maybe it'll be called something else besides 'dollar'. There will be a new world currency, the model says. It won't be America's currency.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Slim95 on 08/23/15 at 11:38 pm

There's already a recession here. That should have been part of a poll answer...  These threads are very U.S. centric. :P

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: bchris02 on 08/24/15 at 12:08 am

I don't know.  One thing I will say is that a stock market correction doesn't always mean recession.  The stock market suffered huge losses in 1987 and 1997 yet neither case came with a recession.  There will be another U.S. recession though.  It's inevitable.  Question is, how bad will it be?  The severity of the 2008-2010 crisis was due to banks being leveraged to the max because of the subprime loan crisis.  Is there evidence of those conditions now?  Without a collapse of the banking system, any recession that happens will not be as severe as 2008-10 or the Great Depression.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/24/15 at 12:21 am


I don't know.  One thing I will say is that a stock market correction doesn't always mean recession.  The stock market suffered huge losses in 1987 and 1997 yet neither case came with a recession.  There will be another U.S. recession though.  It's inevitable.  Question is, how bad will it be?  The severity of the 2008-2010 crisis was due to banks being leveraged to the max because of the subprime loan crisis.  Is there evidence of those conditions now?  Without a collapse of the banking system, any recession that happens will not be as severe as 2008-10 or the Great Depression.


You seem to know more about the economy than me. I think it will be bad but not necessarily as bad as that dude I'm reading about. I don't think it will be bad as the 1930's either! Hopefully you're right and it's just one crash like the 1987 one or whatever.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: mqg96 on 08/24/15 at 3:05 am

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/23/investing/world-stock-markets/index.html

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/aug/24/global-stocks-sell-off-deepens-as-panic-grips-markets-live

http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-gulf-stocks-plummet-as-oil-prices-plunge-2015-8#ixzz3jiA0v2NB

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Arrowstone on 08/24/15 at 4:37 am


I don't know.  One thing I will say is that a stock market correction doesn't always mean recession.  The stock market suffered huge losses in 1987 and 1997 yet neither case came with a recession.  There will be another U.S. recession though.  It's inevitable.  Question is, how bad will it be?  The severity of the 2008-2010 crisis was due to banks being leveraged to the max because of the subprime loan crisis.  Is there evidence of those conditions now?  Without a collapse of the banking system, any recession that happens will not be as severe as 2008-10 or the Great Depression.


I think a danger is that debts are rising and if/when a new crisis erupts, the governments and institutions like the Fed run out of options to solve it.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Philip Eno on 08/24/15 at 6:32 am

In the news today:

Stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt have fallen sharply as fears of a Chinese economic slowdown continue to haunt investors.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34038147

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Fearsword on 08/24/15 at 7:49 am

Australian share markets have worst day since January 2009(during the height of the GFC)
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/08/24/12/02/australian-share-market-tumbles-losing-billions-of-dollars-within-an-hour-of-opening

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/24/15 at 8:41 am


Australian share markets have worst day since January 2009(during the height of the GFC)
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/08/24/12/02/australian-share-market-tumbles-losing-billions-of-dollars-within-an-hour-of-opening


In America, the Dow Jones went down as much as 1,000 points. Sorry about Australia too.  :-\\

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/24/15 at 8:42 am


In the news today:

Stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt have fallen sharply as fears of a Chinese economic slowdown continue to haunt investors.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34038147


This is all so crazy.  :(

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Philip Eno on 08/24/15 at 1:36 pm

London's FTSE 100 index closed down 4.6% at 5,898.87, with major markets in France and Germany down by 5.5% and 4.96% respectively. In total, £73.75bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 as a result of Monday's falls. Wall Street's Dow Jones initially fell 6%, but recovered to trade just 0.8% lower. At one point it fell below 16,000 for the first time since February 2014, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq index was 1% lower, recovering from an earlier plunge of 8%.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: ocarinafan96 on 08/24/15 at 2:22 pm

Damn the market is going downhill!

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Howard on 08/24/15 at 2:35 pm


So, I guess the 2030s would just be worse than this decade, financially? Holy crap, that's terrible. I don't know if that's true or not, but that would just be terrible.


We don't know yet until another 20 years from now.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Baltimoreian on 08/24/15 at 2:58 pm


Damn the market is going downhill!


Seriously? What news network do you watch?

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: ocarinafan96 on 08/24/15 at 5:31 pm


Seriously? What news network do you watch?


Its all over the news dude. They announced on ABC and a few other networks that the stocks dropped by about 500 points. Plus this has been going on for a few days. Some speculate that it has something to do with China's devaluation of the Yuan. Regardless its not looking so hot on Wall Street right now...

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Philip Eno on 08/24/15 at 5:42 pm


Seriously? What news network do you watch?
The BBC has been covering it over here.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/24/15 at 7:41 pm

Stocks are up, as of right now.  8)

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: Baltimoreian on 08/24/15 at 8:01 pm


Stocks are up, as of right now.  8)


On how many points?

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: 80sfan on 08/24/15 at 8:09 pm


On how many points?


The Dow Jones is up by 191 points.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in fall 2015?

Written By: TheKid99 on 08/24/15 at 11:22 pm

I believe we are probably at the bottom of the correction right now, but it will be like 2011 and be volitile for the rest of the year. Now if it gets below the levels seen at the open yesterday, we probably will be going down alot further. Watch the Federal Reserve in mid-September, they will be making the desision on whether or not they will be raising interest rates for the first time since 2006, if they do it will probably cause a mini crash. The economy though has really been slowing down this year, even as someone that is not in the workforce yet compared to 2014 we are doing badly economically. I do not have high hopes this year and next year. We could enter a recession as early as next year, but is not guaranteed.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: Fearsword on 01/12/16 at 5:27 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-dow-history-idUSKBN0UL2M520160107

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: ralfy on 01/12/16 at 11:52 pm

"Baltic Dry Ship Index Tumbles to Fresh Record Amid China Turmoil"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-05/baltic-dry-ship-index-tumbles-to-fresh-record-amid-china-turmoil

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: 80sfan on 01/13/16 at 2:59 pm

Right now the Dow Jones is down 367 points. Ouch!

I wouldn't be surprised if this is just a preview of a coming economic meltdown in the next two years, or even earlier.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: ralfy on 01/13/16 at 7:45 pm

"RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBS-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html

"Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns"

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-plunge-sparks-bankruptcy-concerns-1452560335

Related:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: ralfy on 01/14/16 at 5:45 pm

"Hope Fades for Dry Bulk Recovery as Baltic Index Crashes Below 400 Points"

http://gcaptain.com/2016/01/13/hope-fades-for-dry-bulk-recovery-as-baltic-dry-index-crashes-below-400-points/

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: Fearsword on 01/15/16 at 4:38 pm

Australia's ASX 200 is yet to trade in positive territory in 2016.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: TheKid99 on 01/15/16 at 6:50 pm

I am truly worried now that we entered a recession in 2015.

Atlanta Federal Reserve released its weekly projection on the GDP growth rate for the United States

Q4 2015 0.6%.  8-P

With some banks like BNP Paribas forecasting no growth for the 4th quarter, that makes me worried. We have not had a negative 4th quarter in our GDP growth rate since 2008. Now while one quarter of contracting GDP is not enough to be a recession, if the first quarter of this year also contracts(which could happen, as it happened in 2014 and 2011 2015 was negative before adjustments) that is the technical definition of a recession.

And whatever you guys do, do not drink the kool aid of China's supposedly rosy GDP findings which will be released on Monday, those are cooked books like Enron's quarter revenues from 1997-2001. Many industry people and economists who live in China believe its is growing at about 2% and not the very rosy 6% it says it is. I think China will enter a recession for the first time since forever.

DOW closed down -390
Nasdaq -127
S&P -42.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: Slim95 on 01/15/16 at 9:57 pm

I don't now if where you live but here we've been in a depression since late 2014. It's currently much worse than the 2008/2009 recession.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: TheKid99 on 01/15/16 at 10:24 pm

Oh I live in the United States in Ohio. My city, Cincinnati, usually whethers recessions fairly well. We had our two tallest skyscrapers, the Carew Tower and the Great American Tower @ Queen City Square completed during the depths of each major recession/depression we had in the US. Carew Tower was completed in 1930 and the Great American Tower was completed in 2010. 2006 was the start of the recession around here, thats when the housing bubble peaked, home prices started falling and our economy around here stopped growing.

Around here our unemployment rate is the lowest since 2001 at 4.1%, however since the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of the economy, that is not an entirely accurate picture. I believe around here we peaked in mid 2015. Around June or July. Since then there has been a noticeable slowdown in the economy, housing prices have dropped off a bit.

I believe that the US is in between a rock and a hard place when the next Recession comes(I believe it might be here now but if its not it will come within a year) due to our seven year long Zero Interest Rate Policy that was just in December eradicated. The Federal Reserve rose interest rates too low and wayyyyy too late. Since we dont have as much ammunition so to speak when the next recession comes, we might have to cut interest rates into negative territory like Europe.

Subject: Re: Will a new global financial crisis be starting in 2016?

Written By: Emman on 01/16/16 at 10:29 am


Oh I live in the United States in Ohio. My city, Cincinnati, usually whethers recessions fairly well. We had our two tallest skyscrapers, the Carew Tower and the Great American Tower @ Queen City Square completed during the depths of each major recession/depression we had in the US. Carew Tower was completed in 1930 and the Great American Tower was completed in 2010. 2006 was the start of the recession around here, thats when the housing bubble peaked, home prices started falling and our economy around here stopped growing.

Around here our unemployment rate is the lowest since 2001 at 4.1%, however since the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of the economy, that is not an entirely accurate picture. I believe around here we peaked in mid 2015. Around June or July. Since then there has been a noticeable slowdown in the economy, housing prices have dropped off a bit.

I believe that the US is in between a rock and a hard place when the next Recession comes(I believe it might be here now but if its not it will come within a year) due to our seven year long Zero Interest Rate Policy that was just in December eradicated. The Federal Reserve rose interest rates too low and wayyyyy too late. Since we dont have as much ammunition so to speak when the next recession comes, we might have to cut interest rates into negative territory like Europe.


I think the global economy will be in dire straits starting around the 2016-2018 time frame, deflationary pressures will become very strong and like you said there will be very little ammunition, it could be quite scary :o.

But then there is the political fallout of all this, it could be a very transformative phase, it will open the door for all kinds of things to happen. One thing I expect is the disintegration of the eurozone but it could(worst case scenario) lead to international geopolitical conflict(specifically between China and the US).   

There's a Russian-American scientist named Peter Turchin who is predicting major upheaval around the year 2020 as part of a unrest cycle, the last peak happened around 1970. The thing he says drives these cycles is mounting inequality until tensions build up leading to pre revolutionary conditions.

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